* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BUD EP021994 06/29/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 30 30 26 24 23 22 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 30 30 26 24 23 22 24 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 21 21 22 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 28 29 23 22 25 23 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 4 3 11 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 -1 0 1 -3 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 101 58 84 257 320 310 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.8 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 120 116 115 114 119 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 59 59 57 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 28 42 36 27 45 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 22 3 10 4 10 51 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1219 1236 1257 1305 1359 1445 1545 1590 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.5 16.5 15.8 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.7 120.4 121.3 121.9 123.0 123.6 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 7 6 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0.