* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BUD EP021994 06/29/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 28 26 23 19 18 16 17 18 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 28 26 23 19 18 16 17 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 20 20 20 21 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 27 28 23 24 22 18 19 18 19 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 12 8 7 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -5 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 107 88 81 94 10 10 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 110 107 106 104 103 106 110 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 60 56 54 50 46 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 40 36 31 30 21 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 18 10 -20 -33 -22 3 0 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1078 1128 1200 1293 1378 1503 1653 1852 2063 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.4 121.4 122.6 123.8 126.0 127.9 130.2 132.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7.