* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL011994 07/02/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 50 55 59 58 62 62 64 66 68 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 50 55 59 46 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 49 53 42 32 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 27 29 25 24 21 26 21 21 20 9 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 10 13 3 8 10 12 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 1 3 5 7 5 6 1 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 9 3 342 356 108 72 157 119 140 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 147 145 145 145 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 133 125 124 126 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 13 14 12 15 10 15 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 54 51 51 48 51 52 52 51 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 13 11 10 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -7 -15 -19 -32 -78 -81 -120 -99 -134 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 18 18 9 1 3 17 -16 5 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 224 339 381 284 249 56 44 -56 -140 -358 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.6 25.9 26.7 27.0 28.6 29.6 30.9 31.7 33.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.2 87.8 88.2 88.3 89.2 88.8 89.2 88.8 89.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 6 5 9 4 7 6 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 24. 23. 27. 27. 29. 31. 33.