* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP031994 07/02/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 70 63 53 43 37 30 27 21 18 16 V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 70 63 53 43 37 30 27 21 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 85 80 75 69 65 58 53 50 49 47 46 44 DIS V (KT) G02R 35 35 32 27 26 27 24 26 25 26 25 26 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 4 5 9 6 6 7 4 8 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 10 7 0 1 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 81 30 292 257 252 272 259 208 203 152 18 51 N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 105 105 106 108 110 113 113 113 110 111 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 52 50 49 43 45 44 48 45 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 20 19 17 14 14 12 11 9 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 37 47 38 32 32 11 11 8 19 3 14 N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -4 -9 -2 -14 -38 -17 15 8 -22 -21 -13 N/A LAND (KM) 968 1078 1179 1240 1292 1473 1610 1830 2035 2122 1839 1546 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.5 19.3 19.3 18.9 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.5 121.0 122.1 122.9 123.9 126.1 127.8 130.1 132.3 134.6 137.3 140.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 9 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -27. -32. -37. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -22. -32. -42. -48. -55. -58. -64. -67. -69.