* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL011994 07/02/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 50 53 57 57 62 62 63 63 65 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 50 53 38 31 28 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 47 35 29 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) G04R 28 28 29 30 28 31 21 16 13 12 10 11 11 SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 7 8 15 13 16 10 8 9 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 3 2 5 4 7 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 356 358 360 15 49 124 112 147 120 141 80 47 52 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 145 140 136 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 134 131 123 117 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.6 -54.0 -54.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 12 13 14 10 14 9 16 9 19 10 21 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 56 56 56 59 55 53 52 50 53 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 -12 -15 -31 -70 -58 -99 -104 -125 -127 -84 -38 200 MB DIV 14 34 32 33 7 22 27 -13 10 2 10 17 41 LAND (KM) 280 369 398 277 173 38 -67 -180 -300 -450 -604 -710 -686 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.9 26.3 27.4 28.3 30.0 30.9 32.1 33.2 34.7 36.1 37.0 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.7 86.7 86.5 86.2 86.1 85.7 86.0 86.5 87.2 87.2 86.7 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 10 8 8 4 8 6 8 6 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 22. 22. 27. 27. 28. 28. 30.