* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL011994 07/02/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 49 54 57 57 61 60 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 49 54 57 40 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 48 50 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 23 22 24 26 20 24 19 22 13 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 13 17 2 7 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 3 5 6 6 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 349 336 323 347 19 83 152 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 152 149 147 144 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 136 130 127 127 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 15 11 15 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 51 53 52 51 47 52 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -7 -13 -22 -32 -76 -77 -126 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 17 20 15 7 -7 12 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 312 421 315 257 52 33 -122 -239 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.4 25.3 26.3 26.8 28.7 30.1 31.5 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.2 88.8 88.7 89.0 89.6 88.5 89.0 89.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 8 7 11 5 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 14. 19. 22. 22. 26. 25. 28. 30. 32.