* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP031994 07/02/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 74 67 59 48 39 31 28 27 24 22 21 V (KT) LAND 85 80 74 67 59 48 39 31 28 27 24 22 21 V (KT) LGE mod 85 80 74 69 64 57 52 50 49 50 51 DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 21 22 21 17 18 16 15 16 17 19 18 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 4 5 8 5 3 6 10 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 2 0 1 -1 1 2 2 -5 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 145 156 158 180 224 192 329 334 341 359 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.9 25.8 26.1 26.7 26.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 103 101 103 107 111 120 127 131 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 51 46 44 37 36 36 38 38 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 13 11 10 8 6 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -1 8 8 -5 6 4 12 21 22 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -18 -33 -9 -12 -10 -15 -28 -25 -32 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 839 891 963 1033 1097 1251 1376 1582 1819 2082 2208 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.5 19.0 18.5 17.2 16.7 15.9 15.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.8 119.8 120.7 121.3 122.7 123.9 125.3 128.0 130.6 131.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 7 6 8 8 8 16 10 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -22. -28. -32. -36. -37. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -16. -16. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -26. -37. -46. -54. -57. -58. -61. -63. -64.