* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP031994 07/03/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 44 41 37 34 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 44 41 37 34 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 45 42 39 37 35 35 35 35 33 30 DIS V (KT) G01R 33 29 28 29 27 27 28 27 25 23 23 24 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 6 9 3 2 4 11 15 21 25 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 0 0 3 -3 0 3 5 5 9 N/A SHEAR DIR 189 234 227 206 231 231 111 48 67 79 84 78 N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.5 25.0 25.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 110 109 110 110 109 110 109 109 115 119 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 46 45 42 40 37 36 35 37 36 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 15 15 15 14 13 12 9 8 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 35 39 29 25 25 22 17 13 3 2 N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -5 6 3 -10 -2 -3 -22 -24 -29 -27 -21 N/A LAND (KM) 1363 1412 1480 1568 1640 1749 1922 2160 1887 1616 1306 987 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.6 19.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.0 126.0 127.2 128.0 129.3 131.5 134.2 136.8 139.4 142.4 145.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 9 7 8 12 13 12 14 14 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. -31. -36. -43. -46. -47.