* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP031994 07/03/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 43 39 35 29 27 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 43 39 35 29 27 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 44 41 38 36 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 24 18 20 19 20 20 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 3 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 5 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 183 180 179 266 338 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.6 24.3 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 100 100 99 108 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -55.0 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 46 44 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 4 15 14 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -24 -6 -5 -5 -12 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1169 1176 1229 1382 1483 1771 2067 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 20.7 20.7 19.7 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.3 124.5 126.2 127.4 130.0 132.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 14 11 17 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -19. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -20. -26. -28. -32. -34. -36. -40. -41. -41.