* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL011994 07/03/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 59 59 57 58 56 59 59 59 57 56 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 59 59 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 58 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) G05R 27 27 28 27 25 17 13 11 13 15 14 15 12 SHEAR (KT) 15 4 3 5 10 21 18 16 11 17 15 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 2 3 -3 -4 0 0 -2 6 2 6 SHEAR DIR 345 40 88 115 122 149 149 173 143 125 111 113 123 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.6 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 132 118 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 113 101 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -54.0 -54.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.3 -53.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 11 13 9 15 9 17 10 17 10 16 700-500 MB RH 58 55 59 62 61 60 56 56 55 57 60 61 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 14 13 11 11 9 10 13 13 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -42 -31 -16 -38 -69 -71 -98 -90 -81 -65 -57 -31 200 MB DIV 16 22 25 33 32 -13 34 7 22 25 30 3 53 LAND (KM) 286 228 151 81 9 -133 -246 -344 -400 -444 -455 -501 -517 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.2 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.7 32.7 33.6 34.1 34.5 34.6 35.0 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.0 86.7 86.3 86.1 86.2 86.6 86.7 86.5 86.2 86.2 85.8 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 5 8 4 4 2 2 0 3 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 16/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 9. 7. 8. 6. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6.