* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP031994 07/03/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 40 36 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 40 36 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 44 41 38 35 33 32 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 27 27 27 26 26 24 24 24 21 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 4 1 7 10 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 5 7 2 -4 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 126 121 129 152 69 78 92 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.0 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 103 103 103 106 108 110 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 46 45 42 41 38 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 14 13 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 32 29 32 20 13 7 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -16 -14 -2 -7 -1 -11 -27 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1253 1328 1433 1549 1644 1880 2138 1880 1573 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.2 20.3 20.2 20.2 19.8 19.4 18.8 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.1 126.5 127.8 128.9 131.3 133.9 136.9 139.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 11 10 12 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -19. -25. -32. -38. -44. -47. -51. -52. -53.