* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL011994 07/03/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 58 54 53 50 50 48 48 47 48 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 58 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 57 56 41 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 20 16 18 19 18 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 13 9 5 5 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 1 1 4 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 351 340 48 89 161 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.1 26.0 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 138 113 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 120 97 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 12 13 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 55 58 56 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -40 -37 -10 -38 -84 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 28 32 22 15 -6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 186 156 147 68 48 -52 -167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.6 29.8 30.0 30.9 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.2 87.8 87.5 87.2 87.5 87.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 9 7 1 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 16/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 4. 3. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2.