* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL011994 07/04/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 17 15 10 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 18 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -3 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 124 141 120 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 8 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 55 56 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -88 -85 -60 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 18 27 23 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -80 -158 -245 -269 -311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.9 32.8 33.1 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.1 87.2 87.6 88.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 27/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -18. -21. -22. -21. -19. -16. -12. -7. -3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -14. -11. -7. -2. 4. 9. 15.