* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP031994 07/04/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 28 27 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 29 24 26 25 25 23 21 22 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 1 3 4 11 20 25 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 6 -2 -3 2 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 242 304 69 68 74 76 70 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 90 89 88 87 91 94 93 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.4 -55.6 -55.7 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 43 42 41 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 14 12 11 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 16 13 9 5 -6 -12 -30 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -1 -6 3 14 14 -5 -10 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1362 1428 1507 1602 1708 1861 1976 1726 1451 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.7 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.4 128.4 129.5 130.7 133.1 136.0 138.5 141.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):296/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -13. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -24. -34. -44. -48. -53. -56. -58.