* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP041994 07/12/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 59 59 58 50 41 31 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 58 59 59 58 50 41 31 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 56 57 58 56 51 45 38 31 25 V (KT) G03R 69 48 56 50 46 45 49 41 39 38 35 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 6 14 19 20 24 23 32 36 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -2 -2 6 0 1 0 -1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 192 195 189 54 52 63 57 66 40 41 42 52 56 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 138 133 131 131 126 120 116 111 108 107 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 65 64 63 63 59 54 52 53 48 43 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 26 26 26 24 25 23 20 18 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 29 40 45 57 66 42 26 18 13 6 -6 -25 -25 200 MB DIV 61 48 30 42 59 67 44 26 51 50 37 36 20 LAND (KM) 1605 1481 1327 1178 1030 780 496 256 182 242 314 385 425 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.6 22.3 23.6 24.7 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.5 143.9 145.2 146.5 148.6 150.7 152.6 153.5 154.3 155.1 156.1 157.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 12 12 12 10 11 8 6 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -5. -14. -24. -36. -46. -56.