* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP041994 07/12/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 59 60 57 50 38 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 59 60 57 50 38 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 56 58 60 57 50 43 36 29 24 V (KT) G09R 70 53 52 43 48 46 43 42 39 34 30 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 3 8 18 22 21 28 35 39 41 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 -2 -4 0 11 8 0 1 -6 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 191 181 167 73 61 61 61 40 38 41 43 47 54 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 138 133 131 129 125 119 114 111 108 108 108 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -54.7 -55.2 -55.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 64 62 55 51 49 46 43 40 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 24 24 23 23 23 22 21 18 16 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 16 29 39 50 60 42 26 20 14 -5 -19 -29 -32 200 MB DIV 61 29 22 41 52 47 48 38 20 43 24 8 19 LAND (KM) 1600 1475 1325 1191 1037 759 514 295 221 270 339 351 399 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.9 17.5 19.2 21.1 22.8 24.0 24.7 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.5 143.8 145.0 146.3 148.7 150.4 152.0 153.4 154.5 155.7 156.9 158.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 11 12 12 11 10 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -13. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -5. -17. -28. -41. -52. -60.