* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP041994 07/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 27 24 19 15 16 18 23 28 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 27 24 19 15 16 18 23 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 25 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 27 DIS V (KT) G03R 49 38 38 37 31 31 32 27 25 23 21 20 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 20 22 23 23 22 28 33 27 21 16 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 0 -2 -3 2 3 4 5 2 1 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 146 129 120 113 106 74 63 68 85 81 62 49 N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 28.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 133 131 128 129 132 134 138 141 146 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 55 55 52 46 45 43 42 37 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 17 16 15 12 10 7 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 31 17 1 -17 -28 -11 -3 3 1 24 N/A 200 MB DIV 21 0 -16 -14 -22 -20 -11 -26 -17 -21 -34 -10 N/A LAND (KM) 629 534 446 359 301 252 309 478 685 894 1112 1421 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.5 16.0 14.8 14.1 12.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.7 151.7 152.8 153.9 154.8 156.2 157.7 159.5 161.6 163.7 166.3 168.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 8 7 8 10 10 13 14 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -14. -12. -7. -2.