* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP051994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 127 120 114 107 92 81 68 57 50 41 33 27 V (KT) LAND 135 127 120 114 107 92 81 68 57 50 41 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 135 127 118 111 106 98 91 84 77 71 64 57 51 V (KT) G03R 72 52 53 58 53 50 50 47 46 36 34 33 26 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 1 6 13 13 11 16 20 26 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 2 3 3 8 3 3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 254 235 172 328 312 357 47 79 73 68 75 78 71 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 139 135 129 127 130 131 132 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 59 55 54 53 52 47 45 41 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 29 31 30 28 26 26 22 19 18 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 65 73 82 65 62 58 34 31 33 55 91 200 MB DIV 103 68 74 100 89 35 30 10 9 -13 -13 -15 -19 LAND (KM) 936 865 779 687 587 414 301 270 233 166 169 304 431 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.9 15.2 16.3 17.2 19.1 20.4 21.2 20.9 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.3 151.3 152.4 153.1 153.8 155.1 156.4 157.5 158.2 159.6 161.2 162.5 163.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 8 11 9 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -12. -17. -28. -40. -51. -59. -66. -71. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -28. -43. -54. -67. -78. -85. -94.-102.-108.