* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP051994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 127 119 114 107 94 79 64 51 40 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 135 127 119 114 107 94 79 64 51 40 27 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 135 127 118 110 104 95 90 83 75 66 57 49 41 V (KT) G04R 77 52 58 53 48 45 49 36 35 34 26 28 24 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 5 9 13 18 14 22 32 30 38 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 0 0 1 8 4 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 250 230 306 316 358 40 46 53 59 60 74 84 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 142 139 139 135 130 127 128 130 130 129 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 57 54 55 53 50 44 42 40 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 28 30 31 29 28 25 21 18 17 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 54 73 87 93 79 72 70 42 32 36 46 87 200 MB DIV 133 117 120 120 123 55 6 43 29 -8 -2 2 1 LAND (KM) 987 951 814 699 599 446 233 81 66 66 138 319 536 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 12.6 13.3 13.9 15.0 16.8 18.4 20.7 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 150.2 150.8 151.7 152.6 153.5 154.6 155.6 156.2 157.8 159.6 161.1 162.9 165.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 12 11 9 8 10 13 10 8 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -28. -40. -50. -59. -66. -71. -76. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -6. -6. -7. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -18. -23. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -21. -28. -41. -56. -71. -84. -95.-108.-117.-125.