* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FABIO EP061994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 55 61 61 60 56 54 52 50 43 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 55 61 61 60 56 54 52 50 43 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 54 57 55 52 48 44 40 37 35 V (KT) G04R 39 37 38 40 39 41 44 45 42 47 44 50 42 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 9 10 7 10 7 4 12 14 5 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 4 5 7 6 5 6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 350 128 132 162 194 265 268 219 248 290 298 5 180 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 138 137 132 131 130 129 131 131 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 51 49 49 48 50 55 58 53 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 22 25 24 24 24 25 24 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 21 14 16 28 25 8 1 4 6 19 39 200 MB DIV 18 7 -3 -14 -10 23 22 -4 -5 -11 -7 -3 28 LAND (KM) 2027 2106 2190 2288 2230 1903 1582 1229 913 676 422 212 69 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.7 131.1 132.6 134.2 137.4 140.5 143.9 147.1 149.5 152.1 154.5 156.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 15 16 13 12 13 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 21. 20. 16. 14. 12. 10. 3.