* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FABIO EP061994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 55 62 64 68 67 69 73 69 61 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 55 62 64 68 67 69 73 69 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 53 55 54 53 53 52 51 51 50 V (KT) G05R 29 28 31 28 29 33 38 36 43 51 44 44 48 SHEAR (KT) 2 6 4 7 10 8 3 3 6 4 1 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 1 -1 0 0 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 51 295 266 224 231 229 253 163 255 308 347 330 241 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 140 141 142 141 138 132 130 132 131 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 54 53 53 50 52 53 54 53 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 17 18 18 20 21 22 24 26 27 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 18 30 34 33 33 34 32 18 8 -1 11 26 28 200 MB DIV 22 23 -8 12 24 35 1 25 0 13 13 37 6 LAND (KM) 2075 2260 2354 2231 2115 1863 1563 1221 884 631 404 263 215 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.4 131.7 133.3 134.6 135.8 138.3 141.0 144.3 147.4 150.1 152.8 155.0 156.9 STM SPEED (KT) 22 19 14 12 12 12 16 15 14 13 11 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -13. -12. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 19. 16. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 24. 28. 27. 29. 33. 29. 21.