* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP051994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 127 122 119 114 102 93 85 76 70 66 61 55 V (KT) LAND 135 127 122 119 114 102 93 85 76 70 66 61 55 V (KT) LGE mod 135 127 118 111 107 101 97 91 84 77 70 63 57 V (KT) G06R 53 45 49 51 50 48 51 48 48 45 44 37 36 SHEAR (KT) 16 10 2 4 6 11 14 11 12 14 9 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 1 2 1 2 7 9 8 8 10 SHEAR DIR 260 292 303 11 6 25 54 89 85 67 37 18 17 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 141 140 138 134 130 130 131 133 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 55 58 57 58 53 51 50 51 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 30 30 28 26 25 24 22 22 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 41 62 80 82 86 71 62 59 55 50 46 64 98 200 MB DIV 115 111 95 92 85 13 16 15 -12 7 -6 19 -5 LAND (KM) 913 808 742 708 668 560 472 490 518 502 587 718 885 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.9 15.1 16.1 17.4 18.1 18.7 18.5 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 150.8 152.2 153.6 154.6 155.2 156.3 157.6 159.3 161.0 162.3 164.2 165.6 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 8 7 8 10 9 9 9 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -38. -48. -56. -64. -69. -74. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -16. -21. -33. -42. -50. -59. -65. -69. -74. -80.