* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FABIO EP061994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 52 59 61 65 66 69 68 62 53 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 52 59 61 65 66 69 68 62 53 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 48 49 51 51 51 52 54 57 57 56 V (KT) G06R 37 28 35 36 35 36 41 42 45 55 46 48 43 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 6 9 8 10 3 2 4 5 6 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 0 1 2 0 2 -3 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 253 196 190 216 236 276 144 154 94 244 264 234 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 141 138 135 131 129 133 133 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 58 55 51 49 49 51 55 57 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 22 21 25 26 27 27 28 28 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 31 31 30 38 42 31 23 16 28 39 44 200 MB DIV 27 25 13 21 28 54 30 50 22 7 -9 32 62 LAND (KM) 2265 2308 2353 2340 2179 1897 1591 1242 922 614 400 267 214 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.0 132.0 133.5 135.0 137.8 140.6 143.9 147.0 150.3 153.1 155.4 157.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 15 14 13 16 17 15 15 12 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 12. 9. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 19. 21. 25. 26. 29. 28. 22. 13.