* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP051994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 128 123 119 117 108 97 83 74 66 59 55 53 V (KT) LAND 135 128 123 119 117 108 97 83 74 66 59 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 135 127 119 113 109 103 99 91 81 71 63 57 54 V (KT) G07R 41 34 35 40 41 43 45 40 39 37 30 31 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 6 2 1 4 11 16 15 13 15 11 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -1 -2 1 5 9 13 10 5 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 307 307 5 50 62 87 88 103 91 101 82 57 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 140 136 132 129 130 130 131 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 55 54 56 55 56 52 50 49 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 23 24 24 24 23 20 19 16 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 27 42 60 65 72 60 48 41 35 22 23 26 32 200 MB DIV 128 102 95 76 73 48 23 10 -13 -37 -35 6 28 LAND (KM) 935 804 738 672 589 516 461 476 518 575 647 758 922 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.5 16.4 17.4 17.5 17.8 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.9 153.4 154.2 155.3 156.8 158.1 159.4 161.0 162.6 164.1 165.6 167.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 11 11 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -39. -49. -57. -65. -70. -74. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -18. -27. -38. -52. -61. -69. -76. -80. -82.