* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FABIO EP061994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 53 59 61 65 65 66 64 66 60 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 53 59 61 65 65 66 64 66 60 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 53 55 55 54 55 56 58 59 60 V (KT) G07R 34 28 26 29 34 36 33 40 45 41 41 42 40 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 7 7 6 2 6 2 4 7 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 3 3 2 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 115 311 194 209 210 172 249 116 125 344 349 21 320 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 136 137 130 130 129 129 131 133 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 51 50 51 47 46 48 55 53 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 18 18 21 21 22 22 23 21 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 30 26 27 32 37 39 23 15 11 33 40 200 MB DIV 32 14 8 -5 -17 -11 -10 -2 -4 -7 -6 16 22 LAND (KM) 2089 2240 2332 2245 2149 1889 1555 1219 898 670 494 371 398 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.1 14.9 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.1 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 132.1 133.3 134.2 135.1 137.5 140.7 144.0 147.1 149.8 152.2 154.6 157.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 10 9 9 15 15 16 14 12 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 19. 21. 25. 25. 26. 24. 26. 20.