* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP051994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 128 122 119 115 106 96 87 75 66 60 52 48 V (KT) LAND 135 128 122 119 115 106 96 87 75 66 60 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 135 127 119 113 109 105 101 95 86 79 72 64 58 V (KT) G08R 55 50 55 53 51 46 48 52 47 43 36 34 32 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 1 2 9 14 14 19 21 14 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 280 284 188 113 40 8 59 61 86 80 84 78 85 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 140 139 134 129 130 133 133 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 56 54 52 53 50 49 47 43 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 27 29 27 26 25 24 20 19 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 61 72 72 59 53 48 32 36 26 23 48 200 MB DIV 117 105 89 85 66 33 40 27 -2 -11 -25 -25 -22 LAND (KM) 947 868 806 739 689 544 463 437 446 382 448 552 734 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.8 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.7 18.9 19.4 19.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.4 151.6 152.7 153.7 154.4 155.8 157.4 158.8 160.1 161.5 163.1 164.4 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 9 11 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -38. -48. -56. -63. -69. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -10. -11. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -20. -29. -39. -48. -60. -69. -75. -83. -87.