* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP051994 07/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 127 120 114 109 100 93 84 74 70 69 63 61 V (KT) LAND 135 127 120 114 109 100 93 84 74 70 69 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 135 127 118 110 103 94 90 87 84 80 76 71 66 V (KT) G09R 53 57 61 58 52 50 54 49 46 45 50 45 46 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 6 6 2 4 12 12 10 8 5 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 4 4 0 -3 2 4 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 251 249 226 257 257 5 37 44 78 89 314 45 83 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 143 141 139 136 132 129 129 131 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 56 54 57 56 55 57 56 51 49 47 43 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 30 29 30 28 28 26 23 23 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 37 41 50 58 65 62 54 58 47 43 52 45 92 200 MB DIV 123 98 86 48 48 41 15 30 -2 12 12 -17 -43 LAND (KM) 894 829 785 737 700 639 562 540 593 589 572 639 742 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.3 14.3 15.4 16.5 17.1 18.1 18.3 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 151.3 152.9 154.0 154.9 155.8 157.0 157.8 159.2 160.8 162.1 163.4 164.5 165.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 10 9 8 6 8 8 9 7 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -37. -47. -55. -63. -69. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -5. -5. -3. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -26. -35. -42. -51. -61. -65. -66. -72. -74.