* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LI EP081994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 42 45 50 55 59 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 42 45 50 55 59 62 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 40 41 42 45 49 53 58 63 66 67 65 V (KT) G01R 44 31 32 30 28 26 22 24 25 25 28 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 12 17 15 15 10 11 6 15 21 22 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 3 -2 -1 -1 0 1 7 12 10 SHEAR DIR 160 159 158 170 182 196 214 198 174 176 205 214 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 156 157 156 156 157 160 161 162 162 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 54 57 62 62 63 63 63 65 66 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 14 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 28 14 6 -1 -3 -9 -13 -5 -15 6 20 33 42 200 MB DIV 3 -12 11 9 -11 -21 3 0 -7 1 19 30 16 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 16.1 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 10 11 11 12 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):296/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -9. -7. -4. -3. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26.