* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ILEANA EP111994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 30 24 22 22 21 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 5 358 1 359 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 22.1 21.6 21.1 20.6 20.8 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 84 79 74 69 72 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 67 66 63 59 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 38 38 36 47 49 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 34 11 0 -7 -12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 358 452 598 733 888 1190 1556 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.4 25.7 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.3 120.9 122.3 123.9 127.2 130.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 21 CX,CY: -18/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -16. -19. -23. -24. -26. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -15. -23. -29. -36. -44. -49. -55. -56. -57.