* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 29 22 21 16 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 222 218 228 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.4 25.2 24.3 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 116 106 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 16 2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 44 3 -20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 686 663 634 591 524 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 22.3 23.3 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.3 117.9 118.3 118.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31.