* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 26 22 20 22 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 204 192 206 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.1 24.4 23.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 126 109 98 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 27 3 -1 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 16 8 -6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 664 574 577 549 622 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.7 23.3 24.4 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.8 116.8 118.1 119.0 120.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 17 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -25. -26. -29.