* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 25 21 17 14 15 14 10 14 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 5 1 5 1 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 0 2 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 226 231 185 209 172 157 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.3 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.9 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 118 109 104 99 96 101 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 64 65 64 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 62 59 56 57 52 50 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 17 1 -21 -18 -18 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 847 915 933 1010 1069 1197 1381 1568 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.4 21.8 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.6 121.7 122.9 123.8 125.3 127.0 129.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 10 8 7 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 401 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. -30. -32. -32. -34.