* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ILEANA EP111994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 31 21 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 94 34 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 21.8 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 82 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 54 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 37 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 389 521 680 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.3 120.1 122.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 21 CX,CY: -18/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -13. -16. -20. -21. -22. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -20. -26. -33. -41. -47. -52. -54. -55.