* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 36 30 26 25 25 24 24 24 21 20 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 5 4 5 3 6 9 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 0 -2 0 -4 -2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 228 228 254 257 356 34 98 133 143 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 25.6 24.4 23.7 22.6 21.2 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 122 109 101 90 76 81 90 100 109 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 65 62 59 54 51 47 44 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 16 16 15 13 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 70 67 55 46 38 50 48 58 64 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 32 16 -16 -14 -12 10 -11 -11 -19 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 754 717 742 783 858 1154 1471 1793 1875 1492 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.6 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.8 24.4 23.5 23.1 22.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.4 119.9 121.2 122.6 126.1 130.0 133.7 137.1 140.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 14 15 17 18 16 17 18 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -8. -17. -27. -35. -39. -41. -43. -45.