* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LI EP081994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 46 50 53 55 53 53 52 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 46 50 53 55 53 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 40 42 45 49 53 56 59 58 55 52 V (KT) G09R 31 28 28 29 28 25 22 22 19 19 17 20 21 SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 16 12 9 9 10 20 24 29 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 0 1 7 12 10 5 SHEAR DIR 144 147 155 167 178 209 209 154 174 183 213 219 226 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 155 156 153 151 150 149 152 152 153 154 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 52 49 51 55 60 66 66 68 66 66 65 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 9 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 21 13 5 10 17 -4 -22 -34 -3 4 41 56 200 MB DIV 9 -8 34 32 27 23 5 -13 5 2 8 12 20 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.8 14.9 15.4 16.1 17.7 18.9 19.8 20.3 19.9 19.8 19.7 20.4 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 13 9 9 8 7 9 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):296/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -8. -7. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 13. 13. 12.