* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121994 08/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 31 25 22 21 17 15 13 9 8 7 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 16 21 21 20 19 15 12 5 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 1 6 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 222 213 224 216 208 210 218 199 69 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.2 25.2 24.3 23.6 23.1 22.9 22.7 21.7 21.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 116 105 97 91 89 87 78 70 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 68 63 62 58 60 58 59 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 16 -9 -15 -7 14 -4 -17 -22 -27 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 33 -7 -6 8 -29 0 -10 -13 -19 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 670 596 517 482 460 482 586 673 800 942 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.5 22.8 23.8 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.0 116.9 116.9 117.3 117.8 118.7 120.0 121.0 122.6 124.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 9 6 5 5 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -17. -26. -34. -42. -46. -49. -52.