* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 70 75 77 79 80 83 86 91 88 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 70 75 77 79 80 83 86 91 88 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 63 65 68 72 74 73 69 67 69 71 66 V (KT) G00R 33 37 38 39 40 44 43 46 43 50 58 61 66 SHEAR (KT) 12 18 14 12 14 17 24 24 25 17 15 13 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 8 10 12 13 10 6 0 -1 2 4 8 SHEAR DIR 45 54 57 52 40 41 19 8 14 341 5 2 36 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.1 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 131 132 136 141 142 141 140 140 130 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 125 127 127 130 132 128 124 123 125 117 85 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 14 9 2 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 53 53 53 52 51 51 51 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 21 21 22 22 26 25 27 28 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 70 49 48 52 46 26 -7 -41 -73 -74 -76 10 6 200 MB DIV 33 40 30 51 78 65 32 34 -6 34 32 79 65 LAND (KM) 1274 1192 1128 1131 1025 866 888 1024 1246 1094 903 560 350 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 18.0 19.1 20.0 22.2 24.8 27.2 29.5 32.1 35.5 39.5 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.7 52.2 53.6 54.8 56.1 58.5 60.7 62.7 63.6 64.7 63.6 61.3 56.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 17 15 13 13 14 20 25 31 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 17. 19. 20. 23. 26. 31. 28.