* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 70 75 78 79 83 85 89 93 94 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 70 75 78 79 83 85 89 93 94 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 63 66 68 74 79 81 81 79 79 78 74 V (KT) G02R 30 34 35 33 35 34 37 37 34 35 39 39 43 SHEAR (KT) 12 18 17 13 11 12 21 22 26 18 19 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 6 8 11 6 2 -5 -2 5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 51 58 65 82 63 53 14 39 27 36 15 3 16 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 131 132 136 140 145 145 143 136 137 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 129 126 125 130 131 136 130 130 119 124 103 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -55.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.0 -55.4 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 11 5 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 53 52 53 54 57 60 58 59 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 18 18 17 17 16 15 16 17 20 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 71 52 53 52 45 29 4 -21 -36 -61 -62 -14 8 200 MB DIV 29 31 13 34 48 35 49 23 2 35 51 68 75 LAND (KM) 1266 1138 1030 988 929 764 716 754 937 1004 804 658 369 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.0 20.8 23.1 25.0 27.3 29.9 33.0 36.6 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 52.6 54.5 55.8 56.8 58.8 61.1 63.8 65.8 67.3 67.7 66.5 62.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 16 13 12 15 15 16 13 17 15 23 27 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 19. 23. 25. 29. 33. 34.