* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 53 57 61 65 65 67 69 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 53 57 61 65 65 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 45 48 53 60 69 79 87 92 96 V (KT) G03R 32 33 30 28 25 28 24 24 24 25 25 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 14 11 12 8 8 8 4 10 13 14 16 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -4 -1 0 2 1 -3 -8 -6 -8 -10 SHEAR DIR 295 301 295 310 297 315 25 77 104 124 133 121 119 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 139 138 142 144 149 147 147 144 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 57 56 56 54 55 55 55 54 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -39 -30 -29 -25 -7 5 14 15 15 7 5 1 200 MB DIV 0 -4 -4 14 12 -8 -5 -2 -2 13 10 24 40 LAND (KM) 1819 1943 2050 2172 2279 1947 1595 1230 922 675 560 711 916 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.2 14.8 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.9 13.7 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.7 130.2 131.8 133.6 137.0 140.6 144.7 148.5 152.5 156.3 159.5 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 17 19 20 19 19 17 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 17. 21. 25. 25. 27. 29.