* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL031994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 20 28 34 38 42 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 22 24 33 37 41 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 17 19 21 25 25 23 19 19 20 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 53 55 60 58 59 65 70 66 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -5 -3 -1 -3 -7 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 59 73 89 107 135 129 117 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A 10.4 17.8 18.1 16.2 21.4 20.1 19.6 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A 72 82 83 79 89 82 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A 71 79 79 76 81 74 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 -56.4 -56.2 -56.7 -57.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 46 46 47 40 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 8 15 -5 2 41 60 59 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 40 11 9 -20 -31 -28 -34 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -38 63 -31 125 354 1171 1634 1675 1472 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.7 44.1 45.2 45.7 45.4 44.2 43.1 42.4 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.2 66.8 62.2 55.7 48.8 38.5 32.8 29.6 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 35 40 47 46 26 17 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 3. 8. 11. 13. 14. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 22. 2. -14. -26. -32. -38. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 19. 23. 27. 21. 4. -10. -22. -31. -40. -51.