* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 70 74 76 77 77 77 79 81 78 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 70 74 76 77 77 77 79 81 78 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 67 70 74 74 71 67 65 64 63 58 V (KT) G05R 30 34 38 38 40 41 42 38 40 42 48 50 53 SHEAR (KT) 8 16 16 12 15 20 25 24 24 26 22 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 7 10 11 9 4 4 -2 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 39 59 67 49 29 25 16 16 16 15 356 25 35 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.5 26.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 128 130 131 137 140 139 138 139 133 125 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 123 126 126 127 131 128 122 121 123 115 111 87 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -55.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 8 3 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 57 54 54 53 51 50 48 48 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 21 20 20 22 24 23 24 27 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR 66 56 53 45 38 4 -30 -59 -84 -91 -67 -53 -15 200 MB DIV 39 32 27 52 76 56 40 23 3 22 68 43 26 LAND (KM) 1322 1313 1266 1232 1121 1013 1084 1187 1347 1100 775 644 458 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.8 20.0 21.1 23.8 26.6 28.5 31.1 33.9 37.3 40.0 42.6 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.1 52.6 54.1 55.3 57.8 60.1 61.8 62.3 62.3 61.2 57.7 52.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 18 17 17 18 15 11 13 17 17 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 19. 21. 18.