* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 49 53 56 59 63 64 65 67 69 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 49 53 56 59 63 64 65 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 46 51 55 59 64 69 73 74 76 V (KT) G05R 44 36 34 35 33 29 27 26 26 24 24 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 12 11 10 3 8 10 9 9 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 1 0 2 0 1 -3 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 336 325 318 325 306 301 247 167 171 205 221 221 193 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 145 147 151 153 152 152 151 148 147 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 62 61 60 61 63 65 64 60 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 15 16 17 23 24 24 26 21 16 25 25 200 MB DIV 18 36 30 27 25 -1 2 1 19 66 76 52 34 LAND (KM) 1954 2120 2302 2237 2081 1784 1493 1233 1009 854 789 777 845 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.8 12.4 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 130.5 132.5 134.4 136.1 139.5 142.8 146.3 149.6 153.1 155.7 158.3 160.9 STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 18 16 18 17 15 12 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 24. 25. 27. 29.