* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 65 67 69 71 73 75 76 77 78 74 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 65 67 69 71 73 75 76 77 78 74 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 63 64 66 70 71 72 72 72 75 75 69 V (KT) G06R 36 40 41 39 39 37 33 30 28 31 31 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 14 23 21 15 17 23 24 19 22 13 18 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 8 10 12 9 7 -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 55 59 69 71 46 47 24 20 358 348 356 27 42 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 131 133 135 141 143 146 141 139 138 133 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 130 131 132 137 135 133 122 124 122 116 106 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.2 -55.6 -55.4 -56.0 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 8 3 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 55 52 54 55 57 56 55 55 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 19 18 16 16 15 14 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 31 34 38 35 17 5 -32 -47 -69 -85 -74 -82 200 MB DIV 29 23 27 48 81 47 40 14 30 28 38 31 -2 LAND (KM) 1283 1171 1094 1015 873 684 766 971 1049 921 843 649 620 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.3 19.3 20.1 22.4 25.0 27.6 29.9 32.3 35.5 38.5 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.8 52.6 54.3 56.1 57.6 60.7 63.5 65.7 66.7 66.7 64.7 61.5 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 18 17 19 17 15 10 17 19 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 14.