* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL031994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 21 27 33 38 39 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 24 26 34 38 40 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 21 20 21 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 50 56 59 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 60 75 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A 18.0 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A 79 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -4 -8 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 30 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -92 30 -33 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.4 44.4 45.5 46.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.0 67.2 61.8 55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 40 40 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 368 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 4. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 23. 5. -10. -21. -27. -33. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 24. 18. 1. -12. -25. -35. -45. -56.