* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 65 66 68 70 73 77 79 81 83 80 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 65 66 68 70 73 77 79 81 83 80 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 63 64 66 68 69 69 69 69 71 74 70 V (KT) G07R 34 38 40 40 40 37 36 38 36 37 39 39 36 SHEAR (KT) 13 20 20 16 19 22 23 22 23 17 17 20 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 10 13 14 12 9 4 0 -1 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 58 61 67 71 59 63 27 22 7 351 337 346 24 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 132 133 136 142 143 143 143 139 137 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 127 128 128 130 133 130 126 127 125 127 85 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.4 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 10 3 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 56 54 55 54 53 52 52 54 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 18 17 20 22 22 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 62 41 37 34 28 13 -11 -37 -35 -57 -63 -3 21 200 MB DIV 21 35 21 52 79 53 36 45 -2 20 32 61 82 LAND (KM) 1216 1116 1067 1049 954 756 747 896 1067 1080 944 577 224 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.4 21.3 23.7 26.2 28.1 30.4 33.8 38.4 43.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.7 54.1 55.5 56.7 59.2 61.3 63.3 64.7 66.0 65.7 64.2 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 15 16 14 11 14 20 29 34 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 20.