* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 48 50 54 57 60 61 65 67 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 48 50 54 57 60 61 65 67 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 42 44 47 51 57 66 74 81 86 91 V (KT) G07R 23 26 25 23 20 22 24 28 25 22 22 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 14 14 11 10 11 11 11 14 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -7 -1 -5 -5 -4 -3 -6 -9 SHEAR DIR 293 286 280 273 251 217 180 151 150 149 142 119 109 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 147 147 147 145 146 149 147 145 145 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 62 61 61 59 56 56 58 58 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -21 -10 -7 -6 0 3 10 13 19 15 4 -4 200 MB DIV 7 17 22 18 19 -5 12 13 13 31 17 -1 15 LAND (KM) 1852 1899 2025 2129 2236 2292 1938 1546 1187 907 694 543 500 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.0 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.1 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.2 128.6 129.8 131.1 133.9 137.4 141.4 145.3 148.5 151.3 154.2 156.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 13 12 14 15 17 20 18 15 14 14 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 25. 27.