* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL031994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 22 29 34 39 41 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 25 28 29 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 25 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 17 13 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 56 55 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 44 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 12 -24 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 37 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -204 -84 -33 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.7 42.0 41.5 41.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.6 72.3 72.2 71.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 812 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 6. 14. 20. 25. 27. 19. 2. -12. -24. -29. -35. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 24. 26. 20. 6. -8. -20. -27. -35. -44.