* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 47 50 52 57 58 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 47 50 52 57 58 58 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 43 45 48 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 27 28 25 23 20 25 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 21 18 16 12 8 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 0 -7 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 301 294 298 284 246 176 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 149 148 149 151 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 61 58 59 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 11 10 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -4 5 5 2 11 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 0 15 11 6 -18 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1873 1980 2098 2231 2353 2192 1814 1409 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.2 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.3 127.5 128.8 130.4 131.9 135.2 139.1 144.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 18 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 17. 18. 18. 20. 22.