* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 70 73 80 82 83 87 84 84 83 81 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 70 73 80 82 83 87 84 84 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 67 71 78 81 79 75 71 69 68 62 V (KT) G09R 32 38 40 42 44 51 52 50 48 52 48 51 64 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 9 7 11 15 21 22 24 17 20 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 7 7 10 9 -1 4 4 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 5 42 65 55 31 37 15 22 354 21 7 34 36 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 130 131 135 140 141 138 138 138 132 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 124 126 127 129 128 128 120 121 120 117 95 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 10 3 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 55 52 51 53 52 50 49 50 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 24 23 25 25 26 30 27 27 27 32 850 MB ENV VOR 89 61 60 60 55 24 -10 -39 -64 -84 -103 -43 -35 200 MB DIV 61 47 28 53 59 35 46 19 16 12 69 33 69 LAND (KM) 1287 1250 1198 1217 1119 964 1004 1143 1347 1176 906 699 491 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.5 20.6 23.0 25.7 28.0 30.4 32.8 35.8 39.0 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.6 52.8 54.1 55.2 57.8 60.1 61.7 62.7 63.2 62.0 59.3 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 16 16 17 17 14 15 11 15 17 22 27 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 22. 23. 27. 24. 24. 23. 21.