* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 64 66 68 68 70 73 75 79 80 77 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 64 66 68 68 70 73 75 79 80 77 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 63 65 66 66 64 62 61 63 64 61 V (KT) G10R 43 45 44 46 46 43 46 46 45 51 63 59 63 SHEAR (KT) 16 20 19 17 20 19 24 26 25 16 16 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 11 14 14 16 11 2 0 0 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 52 58 59 55 48 47 25 16 14 357 340 30 35 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 130 131 133 136 142 141 138 139 138 131 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 126 126 127 129 132 127 120 123 122 113 101 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -53.6 -54.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 7 3 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 53 51 51 50 46 46 44 46 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 24 23 23 22 22 26 28 29 31 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 65 43 50 52 47 22 -20 -60 -75 -88 -63 -29 -44 200 MB DIV 13 45 33 70 71 54 9 31 -5 27 21 60 62 LAND (KM) 1279 1187 1146 1111 1002 865 923 1083 1283 1183 906 667 623 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.4 22.5 25.2 27.7 29.8 32.5 35.7 39.0 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.5 53.8 55.2 56.3 58.7 60.7 62.5 63.3 63.6 62.3 60.2 55.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 15 14 16 16 14 11 16 18 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 13. 15. 19. 20. 17.